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Betting Risks - Only gamble how much you can afford only.
Every time a punter places a bet, he stakes a small proportion of his bankroll, the size of which may or may not vary, according to the punter's preferences and judgements about staking. Obviously, the smaller the stake as a proportion of the total bankroll, the less significant the impact after either a win or a loss. In terms of risk management, smaller stakes involve less risk of losing the bankroll entirely. For a punter with an edge over the bookmaker, the chances of ever losing it entirely are diminished. For a punter without one, that misfortune will unfortunately be unavoidable, but it will not come around as quickly. In terms of growing the bankroll, smaller stakes will naturally contribute smaller profits, and growth, if a betting edge is accessible, will take longer.
Put frankly, the larger the size of the betting stakes as a proportion of the bankroll, the greater the chance of "bankruptcy" if things go wrong. Five consecutive losing bets at £20 each, for example, would eradicate a bank of £100. If the stakes had instead been £5, the punter could have afforded another 15 losses before bankruptcy. To most punters, this will seem intuitively obvious, yet it is surprising how many still insist on using stake sizes that a proper risk assessment would consider to be entirely unacceptable.
Despite the greater overrounds, many punters like to increase the number of selections to a wager, attracted by the higher returns. The chances of winning a double, treble or accumulator bet, however, will always be less than for the individual selections which make them. It is not initially apparent, therefore, whether the longer-term return will be superior to singles, and perhaps more importantly, how the longer-term risks will compare. Much will depend upon the edge that a punter can on average achieve for his selections and the preferred size of his stakes.
Where the punter fails to gain an edge, both singles and doubles lose money, but the doubles will always lose more, since their disadvantage is the square of that for the two singles considered separately. Conversely, the performance of a punter with an edge over the bookmaker will be superior for doubles than for singles. For singles, profit is proportional to the margin of success, and increases linearly as the prediction rate improves. For doubles, however, profit is proportional to the square of prediction success, and consequently increases faster for the same improvement in prediction rate.
Where a punter has considerable confidence that he has achieved an edge over the bookmaker's odds, doubles are theoretically preferable to singles. By the same token, trebles will perform better still, with profit proportional to the cube of prediction success. As a general rule, the size of expected betting return will be proportional to the nth power of the betting edge, where n is the number of selections in an accumulator, assuming that each selection has the same edge.
A punter should be cautious, however, before imagining that there are limitless profits to be won simply by enlarging the accumulator. Firstly, one must ensure that an edge has been secured for every part of the accumulator bet. Where this is not the case, the increased overround will begin to quickly conspire against the punter, eating into the expected return. Secondly, and more significantly, however, at greater odds, each bet is more likely to lose, regardless of the greater available returns. To be able to benefit from these superior returns, a punter must stake the same for his double, treble, or accumulator as he would for a single. The same is true for higher-priced singles - a multiple bet is really just like a single wager at longer odds, although the overround will be larger. The downside to this strategy will be a considerable increase in bankruptcy risk because of the larger and more frequent losing runs.
Clearly, one way to limit risk exposure is to reduce the size of the stakes on multiple bets, or for that matter, on higher priced singles. Unfortunately, this also reduces the potential to gain at the same time. There always exists a trade-off between the impulse to achieve higher profits and the necessity to control risk. Herein lies the essence of gambling. Risk takers will win more in the short term, but must accept the greater prospect of severe misfortune. Risk avoiders must embrace a slower rate of return, but can potentially look forward to a longer betting "career". Whilst there is really no right or wrong way to bet, it may be argued that proactive risk management offers greater long-term security for a fixed odds sports bettor. |
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27 April 2008
As the season of 2007/08 are closing, I would like to take this oppurnity to THANK all my loyal visitors who has been supporting this website since year 2001.
Up to date we have more than 4000 members who has been registered to our website to view the Super Picks for free. I am sure our picks are highly accurate and that the reason
our visitors keep returning back.
We will be providing EURO 2008 match game analyst where it will be kick off on 7 - 29 June 2008. Bookmark Us!!
As for Next season, we will be adding to provide match analyst and picks for other leagues : Spanish La Liga and Italian Seria A.
Also we will be starting to trial on our latest formula to be apply to come out with at least 95% prediction accuracy for English Premier League. Only for registered members. Join us now for free.
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17 April 2008
Match Highlights Section (Highlights Video) will be removed due to copyright issue on showing the videos online.
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16 March 2008
Our service are fully restored, lsat two weeks we unable to update our website due to some techinal issues. All the issues has been resolved.
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16 February 2008
We have adding more analyst baggies in the "Super Picks Section". Feel free to mail to us at freemyspacelayouts@gmail.com , if you have
any idea/items/analyst to be added in this section.
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10 February 2008
Our team would like to wish everyone "Gong Xi Fatt Cai", may the RAT bring us good luck.
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| Problem Gambling and Keep In Control |
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 Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
* Efastclick.com does not encourage anyone to bet. Gambling is bad.
* Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
* Avoid chasing losses
* Only gamble what you can afford to lose , do not start the habit to borrow the money
* Keep track of the time and amount you spend gambling
* Set yourself strict limits for the amount of time and money that you are going to spend before you start gambling
* Avoid gambling when you are under the influence of alcohol or any other substance.
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This is not a betting website. We do not accept any wages/money from our visitors. We at Efastclick.com not by any means associated with any bookmaker.We are an independent website and a non-profit organization that provides free football picks. Hence We shall not be obligated to assume any responsibility should any losses be incurred in following my picks. My final picks serve as a references only. The final decision lies with you. Please bet within your own means.
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